Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4619
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4619 · SEA → STL
departs 12:00 PM PT · arrives 6:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +31 pts in 24h
+31 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.