Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4623 LANDED 7:51 AM CT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4623 · TPA → BNA

took off 7:24 AM ET · landed 7:51 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BNA that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4623 · TPA → BNA

Odds over time