Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4633
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4633 · DAL → SLC
departs 7:30 PM CT · arrives 9:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Fri 10/2 56%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 49% of the time recently
↑
7pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.48 in
SLC (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.