Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4636 · ECP → BNA
departs 7:05 PM CT · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
ECP usually runs smoothly
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ECP (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.27 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.