Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4640
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4640 · DAL → LGA
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 11:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from DAL are usually not late
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.36 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.