Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4650
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4650 · LGA → DAL
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 11:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.