Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4685 · LAS → RNO
departs 12:05 PM PT · arrives 1:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into RNO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.