Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4718
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4718 · SAN → SAT
departs 6:30 AM PT · arrives 11:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.