Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4731 · BNA → LGA
departs 4:15 PM CT · arrives 7:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.