Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4738
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4738 · MCO → SDF
departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 3:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,157 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.