Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4741 · ELP → DAL
departs 7:20 AM MT · arrives 10:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 4%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.