Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4746
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4746 · LGA → MDW
departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 45%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.