Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4751
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4751 · SAN → DAL
departs 10:40 AM PT · arrives 3:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.