Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4781 LANDED 1:38 AM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4781 · BNA → MKE

took off 12:32 AM CT · landed 1:38 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 20h after departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BNA that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into MKE at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling10,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4781 · BNA → MKE

Odds over time