WN 4795 · LAS → MKE

took off 7:57 PM PT · landed 12:56 AM CT (scheduled 6:38 PM PT → 12:01 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MKE?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling10,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4795 · LAS → MKE

Odds over time

How late did it get to MKE?