Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4807 · SAN → MCI
departs 6:15 PM PT · arrives 11:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.