Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4809 LANDED 7:17 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

WN 4809 · SDF → BWI

took off 6:10 AM ET · landed 7:17 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↑ SDF is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4809 · SDF → BWI

Odds over time