Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4820 LANDED 10:42 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

WN 4820 · BWI → SRQ

took off 8:36 AM ET · landed 10:42 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SRQ is prone to delays

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.10 in

SRQ (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4820 · BWI → SRQ

Odds over time