Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4834
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4834 · MCO → SAT
departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 5:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 62%
Fri 10/2 56%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.