Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 486 LANDED 6:29 PM CT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 486 · BNA → MEM

took off 5:49 PM CT · landed 6:29 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 486 · BNA → MEM

Odds over time