Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 486 · PNS → DAL
departs 8:45 AM CT · arrives 10:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at PNS that day
↑
Other factors
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
↓
8am departures from PNS are usually not late
Weather at each end
PNS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.51 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.