Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4870 LANDED 7:59 PM PT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4870 · SAN → SJC

took off 7:01 PM PT · landed 7:59 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4870 · SAN → SJC

Odds over time