Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4877
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4877 · SJC → LAX
departs 11:00 AM PT · arrives 12:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/1 22%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.