WN 4898 · MCO → MEM

took off 8:37 PM ET · landed 9:14 PM CT (scheduled 7:45 PM ET → 9:04 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MEM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4898 · MCO → MEM

Odds over time

How late did it get to MEM?