Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 490
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 490 · DAL → AMA
departs 9:40 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 52% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AMA that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
AMA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.