Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4910 LANDED 7:07 AM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4910 · ORF → BWI

took off 6:34 AM ET · landed 7:07 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.07 in

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4910 · ORF → BWI

Odds over time