Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4921
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4921 · LAX → SMF
departs 8:35 PM PT · arrives 10:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.