Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 492 LANDED 11:59 AM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

WN 492 · BWI → LAS

took off 10:37 AM ET · landed 11:59 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.09 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 492 · BWI → LAS

Odds over time