Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4936 · SNA → SJC
departs 7:10 PM PT · arrives 8:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 24%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.