Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4998
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4998 · MCO → SJU
departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 3:50 PM AT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.