Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4999
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4999 · MCO → STT
departs 10:55 AM ET · arrives 2:00 PM AST
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at STT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at STT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STT?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at STT
↑
STT is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into STT at that hour are often late
↓
MCO is quiet at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
STT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.