WN 5004 · STL → HOU

took off 7:42 PM CT · landed 9:24 PM CT (scheduled 4:51 PM CT → 7:01 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HOU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day

↑ 4pm departures from STL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5004 · STL → HOU

Odds over time

How late did it get to HOU?