Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 500 · BNA → DEN
departs 9:05 AM CT · arrives 10:50 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.21 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.