Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5069
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 5069 · DEN → TPA
departs 12:50 PM MT · arrives 6:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
12pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.