Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5070
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 5070 · MYR → BWI
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 3:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
MYR usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MYR (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.