Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5077 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

WN 5077 · LAS → BNA

departs 9:55 AM PT · arrives 3:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5077 · LAS → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?