Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5079
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 5079 · BNA → TPA
departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 5:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.53 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.