WN 512 · AUS → ECP

took off 3:58 PM CT · landed 5:29 PM CT (scheduled 2:32 PM CT → 4:40 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ECP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ECP that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.02 in

ECP (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 512 · AUS → ECP

Odds over time

How late did it get to ECP?