Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 51
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 51 · BWI → PVD
departs 1:35 PM ET · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.