Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 51
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 51 · PVD → DAL
departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.