Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 523 · BWI → ISP
departs 1:40 PM ET · arrives 2:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ISP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ISP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
Arrivals into ISP at that hour are often late
↓
ISP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7.85714 mi Precip 0.06 in
ISP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,657 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.