Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 523 · ISP → TPA
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ISP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.