Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 523 · TPA → LAS
departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.