Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 558 LANDED 10:58 AM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 558 · MCO → SDF

took off 9:20 AM ET · landed 10:58 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ MCO is prone to delays

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ SDF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 558 · MCO → SDF

Odds over time