Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 559
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 559 · TPA → MCI
departs 8:25 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.