Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 611
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 611 · BNA → TPA
departs 1:25 PM CT · arrives 4:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.43 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.