Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 639
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 639 · BNA → PHX
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 4:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.