Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 651 · LAS → SFO
departs 8:00 AM PT · arrives 9:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.