Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 686 · DAL → OKC
departs 1:00 PM CT · arrives 2:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
OKC (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.