Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 717 · BOI → SMF
departs 4:10 PM MT · arrives 4:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 25%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from BOI are often late
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI
Weather at each end
BOI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.